Miller Center

MILLER CENTER POLLING RESOURCES

Has Polling Killed Democracy?	Presidential Recordings Program
Jimmy Carter Oral History
Ronald Reagan Oral History

Has Polling Killed Democracy?

On April 25, 2008, the Governing America in a Global Era (GAGE) program at the Miller Center will hold a panel discussion titled "Has Polling Killed Democracy" that will examine public opinion polling's effect on American democracy. Mark Blumenthal, Benjamin Ginsberg, Sarah Igo, and Donald Kinder will participate in two panels: "The Promise and Perils of Polling" and "The Practice and Future of Polling." Paul Freedman and Lynn Sanders will serve as moderators.

The Promise and Perils of Polling

• Mark Blumenthal is the author of the Mystery Pollster blog, and he co-edits Pollster.com.
• Benjamin Ginsberg is the David H. Bernstein Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University.
• Sarah Igo, Vanderbilt University Department of History, is the author of The Averaged American: Surveys, Citizens, and the Making of a Mass Public.
• Donald Kinder is the Chair and Philip E. Converse Collegiate Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan.

Moderator Lynn Sanders is an associate professor in the University of Virginia's Department of Politics.

The Practice and Future of Polling

• Mark Blumenthal is the author of the Mystery Pollster blog, and he co-edits Pollster.com.
• Benjamin Ginsberg is the David H. Bernstein Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University.
• Sarah Igo, Vanderbilt University Department of History, is the author of The Averaged American: Surveys, Citizens, and the Making of a Mass Public.
• Donald Kinder is the Chair and Philip E. Converse Collegiate Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan.

Moderator Paul Freedman is an associate professor in the University of Virginia's Department of Politics.

Panelists' Papers (Coming Soon)

Jimmy Carter Oral History

From 1981 to 1985, Miller Center scholar's recorded oral history interviews of more than fifty members of the Carter administration - including President Carter himself - creating an important archive of primary source materials for students of Carter and his time.

The interviews listed below shed light on the polling activities of the Carter administration. The transcripts can be downloaded and keyword searched for material on polling.

Jimmy Carter

Carter touches on his relationship with pollster Patrick Caddell. He discusses how polls informed his decision to hold fewer press conferences in the later years of his administration and influenced his decision to give the so-called "malaise" speech in July of 1979.

Richard Moe, Chief of Staff to Vice President Walter Mondale

Moe considers Mondale's attitude towards polls and Carter's use of polls in the context of the "malaise" speech.

Jody Powell, White House Press Secretary

Powell discusses the polling activities of the administration and Carter's use of polls. More broadly, Powell comments on the various methods, including polls, the administration used to gauge public opinion.

Gerald Rafshoon, White House Communications Director

Rafshoon considers the use of polls in the development of communications strategy in the White House and for the 1980 campaign. He also discusses the reasons why pollster Caddell did not become part of the administration.

David Rubenstein, Deputy Assistant for Domestic Affairs and Policy

Rubenstein discusses pollster Caddell's influence over Carter.

Ronald Reagan Oral History

In August, 2001, with the cooperation of the Reagan Library, the Miller Center began an oral history of key figures in the political life of Ronald Reagan. The project is now completed and includes some forty-five interviews with those most closely involved in Ronald Reagan's political career, including Cabinet members, White House staff, and campaign advisors.

The interviews listed below touch on the use of polls at various points in Reagan's political career. The transcripts can be downloaded and keyword searched for material on polling.

Aram Bakshian, Jr., Director of Speechwriting

Baskshian discusses the role that polls and Reagan pollster Richard Wirthlin played in the development of the President's speeches.

Lyn Nofziger, Assistant to the President for Political Affairs

Nofziger considers the role polls played in Reagan's choice for Vice President in 1980.

Stuart Spencer, Campaign Advisor

Spencer comments on Reagan's use of polls during his 1966 gubernatorial campaign in California.

Presidential Recordings Program

Between 1940 and 1973, six American presidents from both political parties secretly recorded just under 5,000 hours of their meetings and telephone conversations.

Through a combination of historical research and annotated transcripts the Miller Center's Presidential Recordings Program aims to make these remarkable historical sources more accessible to scholars, teachers, students, and the public.

In the video below Ken Hughes of the Presidential Recordings Program explains how polling provided President Richard Nixon a way to fend off legislative attempts in 1971-1972 to withdraw American troops from Vietnam even after he concluded that the war would fail to achieve its aims.

Introduction

Politicians don't use polls just to identify popular positions to take; sometimes polls show them how to make unpopular positions more popular. That's how Richard Nixon used them to shore up public support for his handling of the Vietnam War.

Nixon promised to withdraw American troops only when South Vietnam was capable of defending and governing itself. He stuck to the goals of self-defense and self-government in public even after he privately concluded that he would achieve neither.

Video

Postscript

The results of the Vietnam poll come from Conversation 479-7 of the Nixon White House tapes, 14 April 1971, recorded at an unknown time between 12:40 pm and 2:11 pm in the Oval Office. Click here for a PRP transcript of Conversation 2-21, 20 April 1971, 7:45 pm - 7:57 pm, White House Telephone, in which Nixon instructs an aide to make sure the poll results were distributed to Republican Republican senators. The following month, Senate Minority Leader Hugh Scott, R-Pennsylvania, cited the poll on the Senate floor, saying a majority of Americans opposed withdrawing in 1971 if it would mean victory for the Communists (Washington Post, 12 May 1971, "Senate Told U.S. Plans Indefinite Stay in Asia.")

For further information on Nixon's polling activities see James Druckman, Lawrence Jacobs, and Eric Ostermeier, "Candidate Strategies to Prime Issues and Image," The Journal of Politics, 66, November 2004: 1180-1202; Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro, "Presidential Manipulation of the Polls and Public Opinion: The Nixon Administration and the Pollsters." Political Science Quarterly, 110, 4, Winter, 1995-1996: 519-538; and Jacobs and Shapiro, "The Rise of Presidential Polling: The Nixon White House in Historical Perspective." Public Opinion Quarterly 59, Summer 1995: 163-195.

Compiled by Mark Nevin
April 14, 2008