Since 1964, Gallup polling has shown that, on average, a presidential candidate will earn a five percentage point “bump” in polls following their party’s convention. Of course, bumps for individual candidates vary and the sustainability of a post-convention bump depends upon circumstances and events that follow (e.g. financial crisis, poor debate performance, ect.). Furthermore, a convention bump doesn’t necessarily mean election victory.
As anticipation builds (at least among the party loyal) for the the Republican and Democratic National Conventions this week and next, we’ve decided to once again indulge your political junkie pleasures with a Convention Bump contest. Here are the rules.
Enter the following information in the "Comments" to this post by 5 pm on Friday, August 31:
- Your prediction of how much of a bump Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will get following their party's respective conventions.
- Tell us how long the bump will last.
- You can, of course, predict no bump at all or a negative one (John Kerry, for example lost one percentage point following the Democratic convention in 2004).
Winner(s) will receive a coveted Miller Center T-shirt and be featured in a blog post with nominal title of RTT’s “Political Junkie of the Week.”