Once countries, soldiers, and citizens begin shooting one another, many so-called "known unknowns" become resolved in unexpected ways. In the Ukraine War, two of the most important initial uncertainties were the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the leadership abilities of President Zelensky. Many in Europe and the United States resolved this uncertainty by assuming the Ukrainians would quickly capitulate, as they had in 2014 when Russia invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula.
Allan C. Stam