While it's clearly two different presidents, there are some similarities in their conduct says Russell Riley, co-chair of the Presidential Oral History Program at the University of Virginia's Miller Center. Riley says both Clinton and Trump survived earlier incidents of questionable conduct only to repeat that behavior. In Clinton's case there were accusations of infidelity that arose during his 1992 campaign. "And notwithstanding that," Riley says, "in a moment of weakness, he engages in inappropriate behavior with a White House employee."

Impeachment is the central issue gripping the presidency today. It has been 10 weeks since Speaker Pelosi announced that she was beginning an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. Miller Center scholars have been approaching this momentous inquiry with our nonpartisan mission clearly in mind. As a guide to the perplexed, this is a summary of some of their key legal and political observations, plus a few of my own. This is a “first take” in weaving together their analyses, and was largely completed before the release of the Intelligence Committee’s report and the start of the Judiciary Committee’s deliberations.

But are political bets more reliable than polls? The question agitated the American academic community in the run-up to the presidential elections and three years after the coronation of Donald Trump, whom nobody had seen coming. "Today, we all ask the question," smiles David Leblang, professor of political science at the University of Virginia. With his team, he uses PredictIt's data for his research. Thanks to them, he was able to anticipate the results of local elections in Virginia in early November. With success. "The polls are very imperfect, people do not necessarily answer what they think or, when their opinion is controversial, they prefer not to answer, says the political scientist.But with the predictive markets, voters put money on their opinions, they do not lie.In addition, bets cost nothing to create, unlike the polls, which allows to have a multitude and distinguish political phenomena otherwise invisible.

Trump managed to get close to the goal line, Price said, "but he still managed to fumble and to do so in a spectacular way.” Chris Lu, former White House Cabinet Secretary under Obama, agreed. "By using the NATO summit to attack House Democrats and then leaving the summit in a huff, Trump missed an important opportunity to rise above the domestic political fray and show voters that he's focused on doing the job of president."

While clearly two different presidents, there are similarities in their conduct, says Russell Riley, a presidential historian at the University of Virginia. Riley says both survived earlier incidents of questionable behavior, only to repeat that behavior. In Clinton's case, there were accusations of infidelity that arose during his 1992 campaign.

As Trump campaigns for reelection, he has abandoned more deals than he has struck, and his boasts about eager negotiating partners could face scrutiny from voters who expected more results from the self-described master dealmaker, said Barbara Perry, a presidential historian at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center of Public Affairs.