“I keep hitting hard because I know this honeymoon won’t last. Every day I lose a little more political capital. That’s why we have to keep at it, never letting up. One day soon . . . the critics and the snipers will move in and we will be at stalemate. We have to get all we can now, before the roof comes down.”

So said President Lyndon Johnson to his aide Jack Valenti after the election of 1964. As a master politician, Johnson understood instinctively what is set out in this chapter: Year One is the most important year for passing the president’s signature legislation.

The Year Zero team should be charged with building and filling the most important parts of the policy pipeline to achieve milestone victories, including a signature legislative victory in the first two hundred days and the objective of two pieces of legacy legislation in Year One.

Year One is the most important year for passing the president’s signature legislation.

Getting the first piece of major legislation passed in the initial two hundred days (i.e., before Congress’s August recess) should be the highest priority for an incoming administration (outside of dealing with an unforeseen crisis). This legislative focus should be supplemented with executive orders and a regulatory approach that creates early momentum that in turn should lead to a second piece of significant legislation.

A similar approach should be taken to the first year of the second term. Assuming reelection, the incumbent president has a one-off opportunity in Year Five to cement his or her legacy.

LEGISLATION IS THE MOST IMPORTANT ITEM IN THE PIPELINE

The most significant promises a president makes on the campaign trail require legislation to fulfill. The window for passing legislation is small, and the political calculations leading to midterm elections can overwhelm the legislative calendar after Year One.

Recent practice has been to focus the early days of a presidency on issuing executive orders while slowly developing a legislative program. This approach is seemingly attractive because it leads to immediate activity without the need for congressional approval. Recent presidents (Obama, Trump, and Biden) signed dozens of executive orders in the first two hundred days.

Recent practice has been to focus the early days of a presidency on issuing executive orders while slowly developing a legislative program.

However, a proportion of these simply entailed overturning the past administration’s equivalent executive orders, or were symbolic, carrying little policy weight. Few will be remembered over time as legacy achievements for the administration. So while executive orders are useful, the early months of the first year should be focused more on legislation, when presidents generally have the highest level of political capital they will enjoy during their presidency.

Assuming the president’s party has performed well in the elections, it may also control both houses of Congress, or at least one of them. 

While executive orders are useful, the early months of the first year should be focused more on legislation, when presidents generally have the highest level of political capital they will enjoy during their presidency.

Even control of just one chamber in the first year will give the president the best chance of passing some legislation, albeit with support from members of the opposition party. All members of the House and a third of the members of the Senate are fresh from what has been for them a successful personal campaign, and they too have the highest reservoir of political capital that they can be expected to enjoy at any time in their terms. To the extent they want to get something done for the country, or for their own legacy, this is the best chance for it to happen.

The honeymoon quickly passes, and by the end of Year One, all House and one-third of Senate legislators turn at least one eye to their reelection in the midterms. As President Johnson said, “You’ve got to give it all you can that first year. Doesn’t matter what kind of majority you come in with. You’ve got one year when they treat you right and before they start worrying about themselves.” In addition, crises can also happen at any time, derailing the best-laid plans. Unless success is achieved early, momentum swings against presidents and their power diminishes.

Incoming presidents should not rely on Congress to produce signature Year One legislation in isolation. They can save several months and significant debate by working with congressional members of their own party to draft proposals in advance of inauguration. The incoming president can and should drive the legislative agenda by immediately urging lawmakers to introduce that legislation and act on it.

HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE OF SIGNATURE YEAR ONE INITIATIVES

If not well planned and executed, Year One can be equally a year of disappointment and frustration. Several presidents have suffered defeats or delay on signature legislative items at the outset of their presidency. Bill Clinton could not get a healthcare bill passed in 1993. The Obama administration, too, spent months drafting and trying to pass the Affordable Care Act before it finally passed in his second year along highly partisan lines. Trump did not lead, but relied on Congress to lead, his initial signature legislation, the attempt to overturn what Republicans dubbed “Obamacare,” and Capitol Hill Republicans spent six months trying to get consensus among themselves on the legislation including replacement. While the concept of overturning the Affordable Care Act was popular with Republicans, they lacked a viable alternative program to replace it—something that also could have been determined during the planning period in Year Zero. This process consumed virtually the whole first two-hundred-day window, and they finally gave up in July 2017, depriving the president of any early legacy-level legislative victory.

Several presidents have suffered defeats or delay on signature legislative items at the outset of their presidency.

In examining recent presidents’ track record regarding their Year One legislation, two observations stand out. First, presidents have a poor record in getting legacy legislation passed. That record looks even worse when considering what they’ve been able to accomplish in the first six months. Clearly a number of laws passed, but when the filter is applied of what is truly major, even recognizing that determination involves a degree of subjectivity, the list becomes very small. 

Excerpted from Year Zero: The Five-Year Presidency, published by University of Virginia Press ©2024