If it is not already, Iran is on course to soon become a nuclear threshold state, with a potentially undetectable capacity to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks. It has reached this dangerous tipping point at the exact same time as the future of Biden administration efforts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are most uncertain. After months of stalling, Iran claims it might return to negotiations at some undeclared time, perhaps in November. Meanwhile, administration officials have suggested their patience is running out and that, should diplomacy fail, a “Plan B” might be required—without specifying either the timing or nature of their backup strategy.
Eric Edelman